The Rush to the New

I was riding with KT the Man and we were talking about this new 27.5 wheel size thing.  He and I were both on 29er FS bikes so we are big wheel type guys.  But neither of us have an axe to grind either and he feels like I do…that one should ride the biggest wheel size that works best for them, whatever 'best' is.

He drives a demo van for a bike company and lately they have been besieged by people asking if they have any 27.5 bikes to ride on the demo visits.  The question most asked him used to be "do you have any 29ers?".  Times change.  Now that is fine and all, as the company he works for does make a 27.5 bike(s) but they are pretty heavy duty models and really not what would suit most trail riders in most areas of the country.

However people are buying them anyway, just because they are the latest wheel size.  Regardless of the obvious fact (to anyone looking at the situation with a cool and critical eye) that this person would be better suited to another bike in the line-up, wheel size regardless…or another brand's 27.5 in a more moderate build…they are buying them anyway.  It makes no sense really, but there it is.  And KT was shaking his head in a mix of amusement and wonder at the entire deal.  Why would you buy the wrong bike, and a very expensive one too, just to have a 27.5" wheel?

And it got me thinking that the same thing happened with 29ers.  There were a lot of them sold to people who got caught up in the newest thing that 'everyone' was rushing to have.  However, many did not end up with a bike that was best for them.  Even though that big wheel does some really cool things to the dynamic of a ride, it is not the end all be all for everyone.

This new 27.5 wheel size is certainly going to replace the 26" wheel for nearly any MTB model of bike shop quality (and Wallmart will have 'em too, if they don't already).  It really is, as one industry wag noted, "A better 26" wheel".  But that does not justify buying the wrong bike just to have the new hoop-hype working for you.

It will be interesting to see how this all pans out for the consumer.  It is giving any 26" wheel holdout/29er nay sayers a reason to buy a new bike that appears to be an improvement over their old bike and yet maintain their disdain for the really big wheeled bikes.  Not only does their pride remain intact, they get a new bike and make the bike industry money, which it surely needs.  A win win, so it seems.  29ers sure did that for the industry the last few years but now, as 29ers become more and more 'just a bike', they need to do something to get folks excited about filling up the credit card.  27.5, good, better or best, will do just fine for that purpose.

And I have no problem with that. However, buy the right one for the right reasons.  Whatever the wheel size, it does not transcend common sense.

Believe!

This message brought to you by the Hopeful Bicycle Manufacturers Association

 It has been interesting watching the 650b spin machine getting warmed up again as 2013 nears and the rush to the market with the 'tweener' wheel size begins in earnest.  At Sea Otter '12 I asked many industry wonks (off the record...if that is ever truly a reality) as to their thoughts on the movement to a third choice.  Now, it is always hard to tell just who is playing the cards very close to the vest (like some big company that starts with a red S) and who is really telling it like it is, but there seemed to be a few main points I heard over and over again and one I listed that I never heard even once.  Guess which one I never heard?

1. We had a few prototypes of our 650b ________  (insert tires, rims, forks here as needed) that were shelved due to lack of interest, now we have orders for 2013 and we are filling those orders.
2. We are not sure where it is going or if it will be received by John Q. Public, but we are keeping an eye on it.
3. What we see is a 'push' by manufacturers to the marketplace for 650b rather than a 'pull' from the marketplace by the consumer.
4. It really is not "perfectly in between" sizes and is much closer to a 26er than a 29er.
5.  We are completely sold out on the 650b concept and believe that it is the best wheel size for the majority or riders and applications.  We are so stoked to be offering that new wheel size to the future!

So, my perhaps snidely (word?) responses:

1. Money talks and we will sell anything to anyone that has a valid checking account tied to it.  Companies are in the biz to make biz.
2. Well any large bike company has to be at least 2 years ahead of the game in R&D or they will have no bikes to sell.  So if this is 2012, then the 2013 models have been finalized and are being built now and the 2014s are well along the drawing board.  Parts are ordered, sales forecast, marketing in place, etc.  Believe me, all the big players have been riding 650b test mules or I will eat my hat.  No one wants to be off the back and miss the boat like many did for 29ers, but will it be a row boat or a naval destroyer?   Will all of them jump in with both feet?  So far I hear that Scott has bet big.  We shall see if that is right.
3. I agree.  650b is waaay more push than pull.  "Who can we sell a new bike to now?"  "What will entice the happy owner of a very adequate bike to plop down the credit card for the latest thing?"  
4. Seems like that to me too.
5. No, I never heard that one, but then I hardly asked everyone.

A local to me dirt based rag has been thrashing a 650b FS lately and I ride with those guys pretty often.  I heard a gathered group of riders asking about the new 650b scoot at one rest stop in excited tones..."I heard that it is the perfect in between size!"  "I heard that it has the best of both worlds!"  "My buddy says that it will kill 29ers...waaay better."  So the reply from the magazine wonk was kinda funny and telling too.  To paraphase a bit...Well it is a great bike, very fun and it has the best of both wheel sizes.  But it feels a lot like a 26" wheel though.  Oh snap! 

I suppose that, in the early days of my journey to 29er-ness, that I may have waxed on a bit about the bennies of big wheels to anyone that was a skeptic, but then skeptics were the norm then, not the exception.  Now, not so much.  Now I don't talk about it as much and I never get into the silly debates of why this wheel size is faster or scientifically proven (leave that to the Germans) or 'better'.  I don't really care.  I know that I like it and that is enough for me.  It is not blessed of God or the end all of bike designs and there are things that will always bug me about 29ers that will never change due to the realities of things.  But I like them and so do a lot of buyers with cash in hand.  They are truly different in a dramatic, easily perceptible way.  You may not like it, but you can tell right away they are not a 26er.

I may even end up liking 650b more than I do now, which so far has been just like going back to a 26" wheel to me.  Fun, sporty, etc, but hardly earth shattering.  Maybe I will be converted over time.  Likely not, but I have no axe to grind.  I want to ride what works best for me and what I like the most, regardless of label or dimensions and I have no desire to whack others with a big stick about it either way.  Of course I have an investment in seeing 29ers do well as twentynineinches&sixfiftyb.com is a long url.  But really, there is room for everyone to play and ride happy without being so divisive.

It is odd how personal many make it on the forums like on MTBR.  On both sides of the fence, it gets kinda nasty like it really matters who 'wins'.  Sometimes the personal attacks on character against someone like GT by a poster who has never met him, sat down with him, ridden with him, or has any clue about him as a person are so transparently ugly it amazes me.  Shame on them.

I do plan on getting on some really good 'tweener' bikes in the future though, as opportunities arise.  Until then, I will watch with a mix of amusement and disgust as the market forces and the internet cowboys have the 'see who can spin the fastest' contest.  Meanwhile, I suggest this as an ad poster for 650b benefits.  You are getting sleepy...sleeeepy.  Or nauseous if you spin too much.

Well, that stirred the 650B pot

Always controversial, the subject of wheel size and what is best.  My blog was picked up on MTBR and I made the mistake of commenting on it...should have just stood back and watched.

MTBR post

Some interesting comments from Walt at Waltworks on what is possible with 29" wheels and longer travel.  I have seen his, what looks like Ventana based rear FS, steel frames before.  Very creative.  And Devin Lenz has had the PBJ out there too.  So in this case the small guy works around the issues of stuffing it all in there.  I know the Lenz stuff works very well , I have no idea how the WW stuff is in FS but Walt is a pretty smart guy, so I imagine it is good too.

But.  That is a long ways from being a viable solution to the bigger bike makers woes, that of getting 29ers to make sense and behave in bigger travel designs.  His point that if a small guy can do it, then the big guys should be able to as well may be true.  I am sure that they have smart guys too and engineering resources that a garage guy can only dream of.   But the idea of bigger travel 29ers may not scale up well when it needs to work across a broad range of suspension designs and drivetrain components.  It may well be that, at the end of the day, when the prototypes are built, ridden, broken, tweaked and re ridden, that they may not be all that good, especially when you have to face the wrath of the bean counters who forecast sales numbers.   The thing is...is it WORTH IT? 

Maybe not for any real numbers of bikes, but maybe for a small builder like Lenzsport.  Meanwhile, Walt had some thoughts on big travel 29ers.

So the thing about 650B and whether it is the solution to getting the biggest wheel reasonable underneath you on a real AM/DH bike may well be the real deal, even if it is not the biggest wheel we ride.  We shall see.

650B - Finally a reason to exist?

When I first heard about 650B, I figured that it would replace 26" wheels at some point, but I did not expect 29ers to be so quick to take over XC duties, basically making 26ers antiques as far as a hardtail or shorter travel XC/Trail applications.  That rapid acceptance killed any momentum that 650B had gained.

26ers are done...stick a fork in 'em (to paraphrase a bit...sorry RC).  But where is 650B?

650B seemed to die on the vine as an XC app, offering less than the full bennies of a 29er wheel and only slightly more than a 26" wheel, but vastly complicating things for a bike shop or manufacturer who had to stock a whole bunch of new SKUs.  Then, tire selection, fork options, etc, never happened in any real numbers.  Brands that made 650B bikes were few and Haro dropped them, leaving, what, Jamis?

So here we are in 2012 and 29ers are poised to take over the hardtail to 120mm XC/Trail bike world.  But the clamor for bigger travel 29ers has been loud, even though it may be a small group doing the yelling.  130mm and above seems to be a place where the complications of a 29" wheel and tire really start to be a bother.  Forks get tall, swingarms and wheel bases get long, front ders get in the way, wheel are heavy and a bit fragile, and a true DH ready 29er tire is heavy.  Want a 6"+ travel 29er that is ready for heavy trail use?  You have one choice in frames (Lenzsport) and hardly any forks or tires to match.

But, 650B may be the solution to all that.  If the biggest wheel that makes sense for any application is the right one, then 650B as a 'big wheel' for AM/DH may just be the niche it was looking for all along.  It could allow frame designers to fill all those needs into a reasonable package as far as keeping things tidy and manageable.  It would allow for a lighter and stronger wheel/tire combo (well, it could...when they make them) compared to a 29er, but still give a bit more of that big wheel feel to the bike.

I dunno...I bet it will happen, but it will take a major player to believe in it and forge the initial cost, then the middle players and smaller builders will follow suit,  Will 2013 be the year of the long travel, 'big wheeled' bike, even if the wheels are only somewhat bigger?

I think so.  Ready for a 150mm travel 650B bike?  I might be.  Sounds like fun.

New motto:  Ride the biggest wheel that works for you.

650b-good or 650b-gone?

It has been interesting to watch the 650b groove play out although I have been watching from afar, never actually having ridden one of the 'tweener' wheeled bikes. Likely that is to change at Interbike Demo Days, but I have no practical experience on the little dears, just to get that out of the way.

But every so often I cruise through the different forums and see what the 650b folks are all a-twitter about. Sometimes it is a new tire promised soon or a rumor of another manufacturer jumping into the fray, but mostly it is neither of those. Mostly it is conversions of 26" wheeled bikes to 650b. Many hardtails and some FS bikes readily accept the bigger hoops and there are some very good 26" wheel forks that work nicely, albeit with some limited arch clearance.

Is this the future of 650b? To be a niche up-conversion from existing 26ers? Maybe it is and maybe that is not a bad thing. Let me think out loud a bit.

29ers are here to stay and will only grow in numbers. They are already beyond niche and while they are not for everyone they are the real deal: enough of a difference to be dramatically set apart from 26" wheeled bikes....both good and bad differences, but there they are, obvious and apparent.

26ers are not going to vanish anytime soon or likely ever and not because they are so great, but they are so entrenched and they work well enough that nearly anyone on any kind of a mtn bike will be happy enough on 26" wheels, even if they are not the best choice.

So here they are with the 650b, pushing a mid sized knobby wheel uphill with the nose as it were. Tough battle. But all this has been debated before so lets get back to the conversion bonus angle. Lets just say that the middie-wheel (as opposed to kiddie-wheel and biggie-wheel) never takes off beyond that: lots of folks looking to add some bennies by converting an existing 26er to 650b. It would support a pretty decent aftermarket for tires and rims. Maybe a fork or two, but maybe not if there are enough 26ers out there that do it anyway and folks already have them or eBay sells 'em cheap used. Then, there is White Bros as a source for new 650b forks.

In fact, and I was discussing this with Guitar Ted, I can see a bike maker actually making 26" frames that are made to fit 650b wheels as far as clearance, etc, right from the get-go. They could advertise that as a plus. "Need a higher BB and more wheel size for roots and rocks? Swap to 650b in a heartbeat. Want a lower sitting bike for smooth, fast trails and long climbs? 26" is there for you as well." (Credit to GT for that line of marketing).

I know there is at least one more good sized player getting on the 650B train this next year. There already is Haro. Any more? Perhaps. Some likely waiting in the wings like many of the big guns did with 29ers. I bet a few others will say "H E double toothpicks NO" when asked if they will ever build a middie-wheeled bike, but look at Turner and Santa Cruz. Both of them being outspoken 'no way' to 29ers and now they are both in the game.

Well, I hope that the 650b wheel gets enough of a following to stay around and become a viable choice, even if it is never the next 'big thing'. Choices are good, even if it is just a way to make an faithful old scooter even better.